The 70 Series has been declared dead more times than any vehicle on the Australian market, and it's outlived every one of those obituaries since 1984. This round of headlines has more behind it, because there's a real regulatory proposal on the table with a date on it. What's proposed is narrower than the headlines suggest.
What the penalty scheme actually is
The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, or NVES, has been law since 1 January 2025. It doesn't ban any vehicle. It sets each importer a fleet average CO2 target across everything they sell in a year. From 1 July 2025 it started charging $100 for every gram per kilometre a brand's average sits over its target, multiplied by every vehicle sold. Brands that come in under target earn credits they can bank or sell.
Utes and heavy 4WDs sit in their own category with a softer target, but it tightens fast: 210 grams per kilometre in 2025, stepping down to 110 by 2029. No 70 Series ever built gets anywhere near the far end of that. The first reporting period closed in February 2026 with 19 brands on track for penalties, so the scheme has teeth in practice now, not just on paper.
Why the 70 Series hasn't been caught yet
The scheme only covers vehicles up to 3500kg GVM. Every 70 Series, single cab to Troopy, is rated at 3510kg. Ten kilograms is the entire reason the 70 Series has watched this scheme from the outside, while the HiLux sits under 3500kg and counts toward Toyota's fleet average today. That pressure on the dual cab market is real and it's already shaping what Toyota sells. The 70 Series itself has been exempt.
It isn't alone out there. The Ram 1500 at 3505kg, the Toyota Tundra at 3536kg and the Ineos Grenadier all sit in the same gap, and it's hard to argue every one of them ended up there by accident.
What's actually proposed
The federal government has been consulting on closing that gap: extending the scheme to vehicles between 3501kg and 3855kg GVM from 1 July 2027. Public submissions closed on 20 July 2026 and no decision has been announced yet. The groundwork is visibly being laid though. A new measurement rule, ADR 114/00, arrived in May 2026 and makes it possible to certify CO2 figures for exactly this class of vehicle.
Two details matter more than the headline. Anything supplied before 30 June 2027 would never count toward the scheme, so nothing already on the road or on a boat is touched. And inclusion doesn't outlaw the 70 Series, it prices its emissions into Toyota's fleet average, the same way the HiLux is priced in today.
Would Toyota really kill it?
Toyota Australia has been unusually direct on this. Asked about the future of the LandCruiser and HiLux under the scheme, its local executives have said the models are "one hundred per cent" staying, and that passing penalty costs on through price rises would be "a last resort". A brand selling hybrids in the volumes Toyota does also earns credits that offset its heavy hitters, which is a luxury the 70 Series' smaller rivals don't have.
If the change goes ahead, the likely outcome is the one we've already watched play out once.
The V8 was the rehearsal
Production of the V8 70 Series ended in September 2024, and Toyota named the incoming emissions standard as one of the reasons. The range didn't die. The four cylinder carried it on, order books reopened in July 2026, and demand stayed strong enough that several variants, including the five speed manual, remain paused. What happened to used V8 prices afterwards is worth reading next, and it's the clearest guide to how this market behaves when supply of something tightens.
If you own one, or want one
A 70 Series already in your driveway is untouched by any version of this. If you're planning a new one, the date that matters is 30 June 2027: anything supplied before then sits outside the scheme entirely, whatever Canberra decides. And if the change does go through, the V8 years say the used market will react before the new car price list does.
Forty years of the 70 Series says the ending gets written often and arrives never. Watch this one rather than panic, and we'll cover the decision when it comes.
